Peggy Noonan: Obama and the Runaway Train
Peggy Noonan: Obama and the Runaway Train.
“He took down a political machine without raising his voice.”
Where to vote
Google Maps tells you where to vote.
Just enter your street address and Google tells you where to vote on election day. One less excuse to not vote.
Blue Öyster Cult sighting: Flaming Telepaths
Blue Öyster Cult’s ‘Flaming Telepaths’ celebrated on Jeff’s Gameblog.
This tune appears on ‘Secret Treaties, a record I bought on a trip to Seattle with my parents and sister some time around 1982. That sounds like a long time ago, and it is, but consider that at the time that album was already at least seven years old and sold in the overstock bin with a ‘Nice Price!’ sticker at $3.99. That’s about $8.50 in 2008 dollars. You can buy the CD used at Amazon.com right now for $9.00, including shipping. 26 years later you can enjoy this hard rock classic in crystal clear, indestructable digital sound for the same price I paid for a warped, thin, cheaply pressed vinyl LP in 1982.
My friends, this is progress!
Crystal Head Vodka?!?
Dan Aykroyd’s Crystal Head Vodka:
“Thousands of years ago, thirteen crystal heads were scattered across the earth – and they are greater and more powerful than anything we have the ability to manufacture today. Their workmanship is perfect: they contain no tool marks and have been cut against the natural axis of the crystal, defying the laws of physics. Some say they are artifacts from the lost civilization of Atlantis, some say they date back to the Mayans, still others say they were created by a higher intelligence.
Brought together, the Crystal Heads are said to contain vast knowledge and enlightenment capable of unlocking our most enigmatic ancient mysteries. Alone, each is believed to house radiant psychic energy, which has magical powers and healing properties.”
Also, it is filtered thrice through diamonds, apparently at Akroyd’s suggestion.
Electoral Projections from Nate Silver
Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus tries his hand at U.S. electoral projections with FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right. Nate compiles results from dozens of polls to predict results for an election if were held today, and project the results on election day.
The FAQ explains his methodology:
“Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster’s historical track record, the poll’s sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.
Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our ‘polls’, which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.
Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.
Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.”
